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What are inflation expectations? How do our personal experiences shape them? And why do they matter to central banks? In this episode of The ECB Podcast, our host Stefania Secola and researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos discuss how people form expectations about inflation and how we measure them. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 26 April 2024 and recorded on 19 April 2024. In this episode: 01:35 – Inflation expectations What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter for central banks? How do people form such expectations? 9:25 – The impact on prices Can inflation expectations shape the prices we end up paying? How might personal perceptions influence wages? 11:30 – Measuring inflation expectations Why is it important to measure inflation expectations, and how do we do it at the ECB? What were the findings of our latest survey? 16:38 – The role of the ECB What can the ECB do to inform people’s inflation expectations? And what role can communication play in this? 21:15 – Our guests’ hot tips ECB researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos share their hot tips and some final thoughts with our listeners. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html Working Paper: Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2914~d6a8832bf5.en.pdf?e655c8b68e7c2fb096387a4da34c42e6 Research Bulletin: Recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look, February 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb230224~558beec65c.en.html Economic Bulletin issue 3/2024: Trust in the ECB – insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey, April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html#toc24 European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

Panel: G20 Roadmap for enhancing cross-border payments: Interlinking of fast payment systems as a priority action Chair: Tara Rice, Head of Secretariat, Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, Bank for International Settlements Ulrich Bindseil, Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments, European Central Bank Maha El Dimachki, Head of the Singapore Centre, BIS Innovation Hub Mehdi Manaa, Chief Executive Officer, Buna Ritesh Shukla, Chief Executive Officer, NPCI International Payments Limited José Luis Langa Hernando, Deputy Managing Director, Iberpay The G20 roadmap addresses major challenges associated with cross-border payments, which, compared to domestic payments, are still expensive, opaque and slow. Enhancing cross-border payments is also part of the Eurosystem retail payments strategy. What is the status of the G20 action plan, and what can central banks and other stakeholders do to move ahead with its implementation, notably on interlinking fast payment systems across borders? What are the advantages and disadvantages of bilateral links and multilateral links, different development strategies, and implementation prospects?

Panel: Financial and technological inclusion in retail payment: Consumers in a digitalised world Chair: Inge van Dijk, Director Payments & Market Infrastructure, De Nederlandsche Bank Anne-Sophie Parent, Former Secretary General, AGE Platform Colleen Dube, Chief Executive Officer, National Adult Literacy Agency Elin Wihlborg, Professor and researcher focused on democracy, digitalisation and inclusion, Linköping University Julien Delamorte, Chief Executive Officer, HandSome Weiwen Zhong, Product Area Lead, ING In a digitalised world, access to safe, efficient and convenient means of payment remains essential. How can this be achieved when various groups respond differently to innovation? How can we ensure that retail payments are inclusive, and that all citizens can effectively use digital means of payments? How can we guarantee that vulnerable groups are not left behind and do not become easy victims of payment fraud?

Keynote speech Mairead McGuinness, Commissioner for Financial Services, Financial Stability and Capital Markets Union, European Commission

Panel: Strengthening the European retail payments landscape: Public and private sectors join forces Chair: Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank Elie Beyrouthy, Chair, European Payments Institutions Federations Javier Santamaría, Chair, European Payments Council Joachim Schmalzl, Chairman of the Board, European Payments Initiative Madalena Cascais Tomé, Chief Executive Officer, SIBS Evelien Witlox, Digital Euro Programme Manager, European Central Bank The Eurosystem’s retail payments strategy and the digital euro project aim to achieve a higher level of efficiency, strategic autonomy and resilience in retail payments, as well as supporting digitalisation and innovation. What is the state of progress of the digital euro? How can the public and the private sectors join forces to strengthen the European retail payments market? How can the co-existence of payment solutions based on central bank and commercial bank money be supported in the digital age?

Panel: Bringing instant payments to end users: Next steps for full deployment Chair: Fiona van Echelpoel, Deputy Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments, European Central Bank Agustin Reyna, Director for Legal and Economic Affairs, BEUC Marcel Haag, Director Horizontal Policies for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, European Commission Sandra Peute, Senior Product Manager, ABN AMRO Fernando Rodríguez Ferrer, Head of Business Development, Bizum Axel Schaefer, Advisor Payments, Ingka Group Treasury (IKEA) Instant payments have not yet been fully deployed across Europe. The recently adopted instant payments regulation addresses some key obstacles to the take-up of instant payments. What more is needed to fully roll out instant payments for all European end users, including public administrations, both online and at physical points of sale?

Welcome address Ulrich Bindseil, Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments, European Central Bank Keynote speech Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

25 marzo 2024